How Get Action finds fair odds and +EV spots
We compare your book to a basket of respected books, remove the vig to estimate fair probabilities, then highlight when your price beats fair value.
Why this works
Sportsbooks bake in a margin (the vig). If we remove that margin from a set of sharp books, we get a better estimate of the true, no‑vig probabilities on each side of a market. When your book’s price is better than that fair value, the wager is positive expected value (+EV).
Consensus over one source
We prefer a small basket of sharp books to avoid chasing outliers. You control which books are in the basket.
Signals, not spreadsheets
Clear Green/Yellow indicators + a one‑line rationale so you can act quickly.
Methodology
1) You pick comparison books
Choose your own mix of respected books from the curated list in the app. We’ll fetch their current prices for the markets you scan.
2) We align markets properly
We group both sides of each market (e.g., Over/Under, favorite/dog) and normalize naming so comparisons are apples‑to‑apples—even across books.
3) We remove the vig
From your chosen books, we compute no‑vig probabilities. Example: if the basket implies 52% Over and 48% Under, that’s our best estimate of the true chances.
4) We compute your breakeven price
Given a target EV (default +1%), we calculate the minimum odds your book must offer to be +EV. If your price is equal or better, you’ll see a signal.
Quick math
- American → Prob: +150 → 100/(150+100)=0.40
- No‑vig Over: pO / (pO+pU)
- Target prob: ptarget = no‑vig − EV
- Prob → American: if p<0.5 ⇒ ((1−p)/p)·100, else ⇒ −100·p/(1−p)
- If your book’s odds ≥ required odds → +EV.
Why not build a predictive model instead? Sportsbooks employ large teams of quants and data scientists, leverage proprietary player‑level data, and update lines continuously. Matching those resources is extremely hard. Using their prices as a benchmark of fair value lets you focus on finding mispricings at the book you actually bet—where the opportunity is.
How to get the most out of Get Action
Set a consistent EV threshold
Start at +1–2% EV. Raising the bar reduces volume but increases your average edge.
Favor consensus signals
Green = your sharp books agree; Yellow = mixed. You control which books count as “sharp.”
Think long‑run, not single games
+EV is a volume game. Track results across many bets to see the edge materialize.
Move fast when prices move
Edges can disappear quickly as markets update. Scan, confirm, place—don’t overthink.
Diversify markets
Mix player props with game lines, across multiple sports. Don’t rely on a single market type.
Bankroll discipline
Flat staking or small Kelly‑fraction approaches help smooth variance. Avoid chasing.
Limits to keep in mind
- Data gaps: occasionally a book won’t post both sides or any price on a market.
- Latency: lines change; scan results can stale within minutes.
- Outliers: that’s why we use an average and color signals.
- Limits and restrictions: availability varies by region and account history.
Responsible use
Get Action is informational. We surface pricing edges so you can make informed decisions. It’s not betting advice. Only wager what you can afford to lose.
FAQ
Which books are “sharp” today?
The curated list in the app contains some of the most widely known sharp books. Sharpness varies by sport and market, so pick a basket that fits what you’re betting and let Get Action compute fair value from that basket.
Why not just build my own predictive model?
You can—but matching a top sportsbook's resources (quant teams, proprietary data, trader supervision, risk systems) is tough. Using market prices as fair‑value anchors and shopping for mispricings at your book is a more pragmatic path.
What does Green/Yellow mean exactly?
Green means your selected sharp books broadly agree your price beats fair value. Yellow means mixed agreement—interesting, but proceed with discretion.